According to Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute that built the model, “the underlying assumption is that something will be put in place – I don't think it's social distancing – that will reduce the risk to essentially zero resurgence.” The assumption is based on the general idea that authorities will want to prevent further spread and no-one would allow a second wave of the virus to come.
However, as of now there is no known solution that could deliver such outcome. Murray sees that solution in an effective combination of existing measures. That means “we will find some sort of policies that are going to be grounded on testing, contact tracing and quarantine and border control – those four components to mitigate the risk of a second wave,”
Specialists from other scientific organisations see this model as very limited, not taking into account the virus flaring up in hotspots over the summer. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine COVID-19 could be eliminated from our lives this year, let alone by the summer. Experts from Harvard, prof. Bill Hanage and dr. Ashish Jha, told CNN they cannot see it happen. “We know that's not true. We know that the number of cases will continue. The virus is not going away.” said dr. Jha.
